Utilisateur:Thibault.mestre/Brouillon

The Mestré Law: Law of Rare Risk Neglect Correction

Definition: The Mestré Law, or the "Law of Rare Risk Neglect Correction," stipulates that the more a process is in a situation where individuals pay less attention and take fewer preventive measures to avoid risks that have a low probability of occurring, even if these risks are very serious, the more efficient it is to automate this process to ensure that the risk never occurs. This law was invented by Thibault Mestré in 2024.

Complete Explanation

Context and Justification:

Humans tend to neglect rare risks, a phenomenon well-documented in behavioral psychology. This negligence is problematic because it can lead to catastrophic consequences, especially in areas where the risks, though rare, have potentially devastating effects.

The Mestré Law proposes a solution by suggesting the automation of the concerned processes. Automation overcomes human limitations by maintaining constant vigilance and systematically applying preventive measures, regardless of the perceived probability of the risk.

Application of the Mestré Law:

1. Identification of Risky Processes:

  - Risk Assessment: Identify processes where risks, though rare, have severe consequences.
  - Negligence Analysis: Assess the extent to which individuals neglect these risks due to their low probability.

2. Automation of Processes:

  - Selection of Technologies: Choose appropriate automation technologies to monitor and manage identified risks.
  - Implementation of Protocols: Establish automated protocols for early detection and prevention of risks.

3. Monitoring and Maintenance:

  - Continuous Surveillance: Implement surveillance systems to ensure the proper functioning of automated technologies.
  - Regular Updates: Perform regular updates of automated systems to maintain their effectiveness against potential new threats.

Practical Examples:

1. Nuclear Industry:

  - Rare Risk: Radioactive leak.
  - Automation: Automated systems for detecting leaks and shutting down reactors in case of anomalies.

2. Public Health:

  - Rare Risk: Epidemics of rare but deadly diseases.
  - Automation: Automated disease surveillance and early warning systems for immediate quarantine and treatment.

3. Aviation:

  - Rare Risk: Severe technical failures.
  - Automation: Automated diagnostic and correction systems in-flight to prevent accidents.

4. Cybersecurity:

  - Rare Risk: Advanced Persistent Threats (APT).
  - Automation: Automated detection and response solutions to identify and neutralize threats in real-time.

Advantages of the Mestré Law:

- Reduction of Human Errors: Automation eliminates risks associated with human negligence. - Proactive Prevention: Automated systems can detect and act on risks before they become major problems. - Efficiency and Reliability: Automated processes operate consistently and reliably, without interruptions due to human factors.

Limits and Considerations:

- Cost of Automation: Implementing automated systems can be expensive. - Technical Complexity: Automated systems may require advanced technical skills for design, implementation, and maintenance. - Scalability: Systems must be adaptable to new threats and emerging technologies.

Conclusion:

The Mestré Law proposes an innovative approach to managing rare but severe risks by using automation as an effective solution. By delegating the monitoring and prevention of risks to automated systems, constant vigilance and proactive response are ensured, minimizing the chances of these risks materializing.