Utilisateur:Nadji jojo/Brouillon
The six impacts of lower oil prices on Algeria modifier
We must reason in constant prices and not at current prices ; During a 20 dollars in 1985 is the equivalent of $ 90 and more in terms of purchasing power in 2015. The LFC2015 provides a recipe of $ 34 billion to Sonatrach by over 60 dollars, the price of gas being indexed to oil , to deduct 25 % of expenses for net profit.
At 40 dollars ( a decrease of one dollar annual average causing a shortfall of $ 600 million ) would give a revenue of 22 billion dollars to Sonatrach and a net profit of less than $ 17 billion . In this year 2015 , Algeria Sonatrach is Algeria 's Sonatrach and I are six impact on Algerian society of lower hydrocarbon revenues in the year 2015 are to be met.
Fichier:Ob d282ca prix-du-petrole-bas-les-causes-et-le.jpg
First modifier
the level of foreign exchange reserves were $ 194 billion in late 2013 and are likely to be less than 140 billion in late 2015 .
Secondly modifier
on the level of Revenue Regulation Fund ( difference between the average and 37 dollars) is spent in the same period of $ 60 billion and which will close at a level lower than $ 30 billion late 2015 .
Thirdly modifier
the value of the dinar correlated 70% with foreign exchange reserves through oil , which increased from 76 dinars to the dollar in early 2014 to 105 dinars a dollar and about 117 dinars a euro 18 August 2015 , veiling the real importance the budget deficit and artificially inflating the oil stabilization fund. With foreign exchange reserves of 10/20 billion during the official Algerian dinar exceed 200 dinars euro, if not a dynamic sections out annuity , the value of a currency based primarily on the production and productivity.
Fourth modifier
we will have an impact on the pace of public expenditure which basically determines the rate of growth with the indirect effects at 80 %, 97% of exports from the hydrocarbons and significant 70 % of the needs of households and public and private companies whose rate integration does not exceed 15 %. Approximately 83 % of the economic area consists of small services / trade, industry weighing less than 5 % of GDP) .
Fifth modifier
the level of inflation which is now compressed by subsidies and social transfers for $ 60 billion or 27/28% of GDP, the slippage of the dinar necessarily inflate the cost of all companies, so the final price if one wants to avoid bankruptcy of these companies is the problem subsidized prices. This impacts sue the purchasing power of Algerians which correlates to 70% on revenue of Sonatrach which has earned $ 760 billion in foreign currency between 2000/2014 and allowed import currency 585 billion, the Unlike foreign exchange reserves at 31/12/2014. Meditate our experience of structural adjustment imposed by the IMF between 1994/1996 which rolled the middle classes, imposed a devaluation of the dinar from 20/25 dinars a dollar to 45 dinars a dollar, and recently the austerity experience Greece where purchasing power has been reduced by almost 40%, a country with 11 million people has a GDP higher than that of Algeria.
sixthly modifier
the impact on the level of job creation that can lead to significant social tensions and even policies that favored hitherto non productive employment and pension but jobs elsewhere artificially inflating the official unemployment rate : plethora in administrations, overstaffing in public enterprises , temporary jobs very little if not unproductive as make and remake sidewalks, etc.